MINING

Industries · Mining

The new bedrock of geopolitics

Mining, rare earths and critical minerals are the literal foundation of the 21st-century economy, driven by the energy transition, the AI revolution and modern defence. We help you navigate the most strategic, most contested industry on earth.

The opportunity

The most dynamic industry on earth

From China’s 91% grip on rare earth processing to the US government’s $10 billion strategic reserve, from copper at historic highs to tungsten up 160%, from 54 nations gathering to reshape supply chains to the billions pouring into new projects, this is the most dynamic, strategic and contested industry on earth.

With massive opportunity comes massive complexity. Processing concentration, cost disadvantages, resource nationalism and environmental scrutiny mean success requires deep expertise and strategic guidance.

Key market data at a glance

The numbers behind the rush

$2.16 tn → $2.76 tnGlobal mining market, 2026 to 2030: 6.3% CAGR
$6.86 bn → $10.44 bnRare earth elements market, 2026 to 2030: 11.1% CAGR
$13,238/tCopper price in January 2026, a record high
160%+Tungsten price increase in 2025
$30 bn+US government commitments in six months
$10 bnProject Vault strategic reserve
China’s dominance in rare earths

A concentrated supply chain

61%China’s share of global mined supply (2024)
91%China’s share of global refining and processing capacity
5–6×How much cheaper Chinese production is than Western production
Key minerals and their applications

What each mineral powers

NdPrNeodymium / PraseodymiumEV motors, wind turbine magnets, hard drives
Dy / TbDysprosium / TerbiumHigh-temperature magnets, defence systems
LiLithiumEV batteries, grid storage, consumer electronics
CoCobaltEV batteries, superalloys, aerospace
CuCopperGrid infrastructure, EVs, construction, data centres
WTungstenArmour-piercing munitions, machining, aerospace
AgSilverSolar panels, electronics, 5G infrastructure
CGraphiteEV battery anodes (50–100 kg per vehicle)
Governments as direct participants

Major government initiatives, 2025–2026

Governments are no longer spectators. They provide loans, sign diplomatic agreements, build strategic reserves and even use military force to secure access. The US mobilised over $30 billion in six months, the EU is scrambling to secure supply and China is tightening export controls. If you are not engaged with government strategy, you are flying blind.

$10 bnProject Vault (EXIM)US strategic minerals reserve
$2.3 bn loanLithium Americas (DOE)Lithium carbonate from clay (Nevada)
$996 m loanIoneer (DOE)Lithium and boric acid (Nevada)
$1.25 bnKorea Zinc (DOD)Processing (Tennessee / Korea)
$600 mOrion Critical Minerals Consortium (DFC)Global critical minerals investments
54 countriesCritical Minerals MinisterialDiplomatic frameworks and partnerships
February 2026

The Critical Minerals Ministerial

The United States hosted representatives from 54 countries and the European Commission, including 43 foreign ministers. The results:

11 new bilateral critical minerals frameworks signed in a single day, with countries including Argentina, the Cook Islands, Ecuador, Guinea, Morocco, Paraguay, Peru, the Philippines, the UAE and Uzbekistan.

FORGE (Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement) created as the successor to the Minerals Security Partnership, chaired by the Republic of Korea.

Private sector engagement through Pax Silica, bringing together leading companies to discuss investment opportunities.

The challenges

What you must navigate

01Processing concentrationChina controls 91% of rare earth processing capacity. Breaking this grip takes massive capital and technological expertise.
02Cost disadvantageChinese refined rare earth compounds are 5–6 times cheaper than Western production. Government support is essential to bridge the gap.
03Tariffs and trade warsTariffs are raising the cost of imported heavy machinery, drilling equipment and spare parts, particularly for miners in North America and Europe, while encouraging domestic equipment manufacturing.
04Resource nationalismCountries such as Indonesia, Chile and the DRC demand local processing, joint ventures and technology transfer. Meeting these requirements takes sophisticated local partnerships.
05Environmental and social governanceProjects face intense scrutiny on environmental impact, community consent and carbon footprint, and the industry is under pressure to adopt low-emission, sustainable practices.
06Long lead timesMajor mines can take 10–15 years from discovery to production. Today’s demand surge is colliding with a pipeline starved of investment for a decade.
The hottest opportunities

Where the money is flowing right now

A · Rare earth elements

The “vitamins” of modern industry

Rare earths are not actually rare, but the concentrated supply chain makes them extraordinarily strategic. The market is growing at 10.9% CAGR, reaching $10.44 billion by 2030.

The critical elements

  • Neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr): essential for the strongest permanent magnets, used in EV motors and wind turbines.
  • Dysprosium and terbium: heavy rare earths that keep magnets performing at high temperatures. They face the tightest supply constraints because China dominates heavy rare earth production and has restricted exports.
  • Lanthanum and cerium: used in catalysts, polishing compounds and batteries.

The opportunity

Companies such as Lynas Rare Earths (Australia), MP Materials (USA) and Energy Fuels (USA) are racing to build non-Chinese supply chains. In December 2025, MRG Metals reported high-grade rare earth results in Mozambique, suggesting a continuous rare earth system with district-scale potential.

B · Copper

The metal of electrification

$13,238/tAll-time high in January 2026; Citigroup projects a potential move toward $15,000
3–4×More copper in an electric vehicle than in a conventional car
400,000 tTargeted average annual copper output of the Vicuña project over 25 years

Copper is the unsung hero of the energy transition. It doesn’t get the headlines of lithium or rare earths, but nothing works without it.

The crisis

The market faces a structural deficit as new mines fail to keep pace with demand. Solar farms, wind turbines, grid upgrades and data centres all require massive copper inputs.

The opportunity

Major projects such as Vicuña, a 50/50 joint venture between Lundin Mining and BHP, target average annual production of 400,000 tonnes of copper over 25 years, with a mine life of more than 70 years. Lundin aims to become a top-ten global copper producer.

C · Lithium

The white gold

Lithium is the essential ingredient in lithium-ion batteries, making it the most visible and contested mineral of the energy transition. Resources are concentrated in the “Lithium Triangle” (Argentina, Bolivia, Chile), Australia and, increasingly, the United States.

US government support

  • $2.3 billion loan from the Department of Energy for Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass project (lithium carbonate from clay).
  • $996 million loan for Ioneer’s Rhyolite Ridge project (lithium carbonate and boric acid).
  • $1.4 billion conditional commitment for EnergySource Minerals’ Project ATLiS (lithium hydroxide from geothermal brine).

The opportunity

From brine extraction to hard-rock mining to direct lithium extraction technologies, the entire lithium value chain is seeing unprecedented investment.

D · Tungsten

The defence metal

160%+Tungsten price surge in 2025
40%Share of all non-China tungsten that Almonty’s Sangdong mine aims to supply
~$219 mRaised by Almonty Industries in 2025 to fund operations

Tungsten is incredibly dense and has the highest melting point of any metal, making it essential for armour-piercing munitions, high-speed machining and aerospace.

The market shift

The US has banned Chinese tungsten imports for defence procurement from 2027, creating a large gap in Western supply. Almonty Industries is ramping up its Sangdong Tungsten Mine in South Korea and has secured binding offtake agreements, including for US defence applications.

The opportunity

Tungsten processing is technically challenging and highly concentrated in China. New Western capacity commands significant premiums.

E · Silver

The industrial precious metal

+20%Forecast rise in physical silver investment in 2026, to a three-year high
6thConsecutive annual supply deficit the market is heading into
231 m ozSilver reserves held by Hecla Mining

Silver is both a precious metal and a critical industrial input, used in solar panels, electronics and 5G infrastructure.

Major producers

Hecla Mining reported record 2025 revenue of more than $1.4 billion, with its Lucky Friday mine setting a record of 5.3 million ounces of silver.

The opportunity

Silver’s dual role as an industrial metal and an investment asset creates unique dynamics: industrial demand rises steadily, while investment demand supports prices in times of economic uncertainty.

F · Graphite

The unsung battery component

A typical EV battery contains 50–100 kg of graphite, more than lithium, cobalt and nickel combined.

US support

  • $98 million loan from the Department of Energy for Syrah’s Vidalia facility in Louisiana (natural graphite processing).
  • $754.8 million conditional commitment for Novonix’s Project Kathari (synthetic graphite processing).

The opportunity

Graphite processing is heavily concentrated in China. New Western processing capacity is urgently needed and strongly supported by government incentives.

Our role

The future is built on minerals

Our job is to help you not just participate, but lead: to turn complexity into clarity and uncertainty into advantage. The future is built on minerals, and we are here to help you build it.

Investing in or supplying critical minerals?

Tell us about your project, offtake or target country. We will help you with governments, local partners and the supply chain.