The new bedrock of geopolitics
Mining, rare earths and critical minerals are the literal foundation of the 21st-century economy, driven by the energy transition, the AI revolution and modern defence. We help you navigate the most strategic, most contested industry on earth.
The most dynamic industry on earth
From China’s 91% grip on rare earth processing to the US government’s $10 billion strategic reserve, from copper at historic highs to tungsten up 160%, from 54 nations gathering to reshape supply chains to the billions pouring into new projects, this is the most dynamic, strategic and contested industry on earth.
With massive opportunity comes massive complexity. Processing concentration, cost disadvantages, resource nationalism and environmental scrutiny mean success requires deep expertise and strategic guidance.
The numbers behind the rush
A concentrated supply chain
What each mineral powers
Major government initiatives, 2025–2026
Governments are no longer spectators. They provide loans, sign diplomatic agreements, build strategic reserves and even use military force to secure access. The US mobilised over $30 billion in six months, the EU is scrambling to secure supply and China is tightening export controls. If you are not engaged with government strategy, you are flying blind.
The Critical Minerals Ministerial
The United States hosted representatives from 54 countries and the European Commission, including 43 foreign ministers. The results:
11 new bilateral critical minerals frameworks signed in a single day, with countries including Argentina, the Cook Islands, Ecuador, Guinea, Morocco, Paraguay, Peru, the Philippines, the UAE and Uzbekistan.
FORGE (Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement) created as the successor to the Minerals Security Partnership, chaired by the Republic of Korea.
Private sector engagement through Pax Silica, bringing together leading companies to discuss investment opportunities.
What you must navigate
The “vitamins” of modern industry
Rare earths are not actually rare, but the concentrated supply chain makes them extraordinarily strategic. The market is growing at 10.9% CAGR, reaching $10.44 billion by 2030.
The critical elements
- Neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr): essential for the strongest permanent magnets, used in EV motors and wind turbines.
- Dysprosium and terbium: heavy rare earths that keep magnets performing at high temperatures. They face the tightest supply constraints because China dominates heavy rare earth production and has restricted exports.
- Lanthanum and cerium: used in catalysts, polishing compounds and batteries.
The opportunity
Companies such as Lynas Rare Earths (Australia), MP Materials (USA) and Energy Fuels (USA) are racing to build non-Chinese supply chains. In December 2025, MRG Metals reported high-grade rare earth results in Mozambique, suggesting a continuous rare earth system with district-scale potential.
The metal of electrification
Copper is the unsung hero of the energy transition. It doesn’t get the headlines of lithium or rare earths, but nothing works without it.
The crisis
The market faces a structural deficit as new mines fail to keep pace with demand. Solar farms, wind turbines, grid upgrades and data centres all require massive copper inputs.
The opportunity
Major projects such as Vicuña, a 50/50 joint venture between Lundin Mining and BHP, target average annual production of 400,000 tonnes of copper over 25 years, with a mine life of more than 70 years. Lundin aims to become a top-ten global copper producer.
The white gold
Lithium is the essential ingredient in lithium-ion batteries, making it the most visible and contested mineral of the energy transition. Resources are concentrated in the “Lithium Triangle” (Argentina, Bolivia, Chile), Australia and, increasingly, the United States.
US government support
- $2.3 billion loan from the Department of Energy for Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass project (lithium carbonate from clay).
- $996 million loan for Ioneer’s Rhyolite Ridge project (lithium carbonate and boric acid).
- $1.4 billion conditional commitment for EnergySource Minerals’ Project ATLiS (lithium hydroxide from geothermal brine).
The opportunity
From brine extraction to hard-rock mining to direct lithium extraction technologies, the entire lithium value chain is seeing unprecedented investment.
The defence metal
Tungsten is incredibly dense and has the highest melting point of any metal, making it essential for armour-piercing munitions, high-speed machining and aerospace.
The market shift
The US has banned Chinese tungsten imports for defence procurement from 2027, creating a large gap in Western supply. Almonty Industries is ramping up its Sangdong Tungsten Mine in South Korea and has secured binding offtake agreements, including for US defence applications.
The opportunity
Tungsten processing is technically challenging and highly concentrated in China. New Western capacity commands significant premiums.
The industrial precious metal
Silver is both a precious metal and a critical industrial input, used in solar panels, electronics and 5G infrastructure.
Major producers
Hecla Mining reported record 2025 revenue of more than $1.4 billion, with its Lucky Friday mine setting a record of 5.3 million ounces of silver.
The opportunity
Silver’s dual role as an industrial metal and an investment asset creates unique dynamics: industrial demand rises steadily, while investment demand supports prices in times of economic uncertainty.
The unsung battery component
A typical EV battery contains 50–100 kg of graphite, more than lithium, cobalt and nickel combined.
US support
- $98 million loan from the Department of Energy for Syrah’s Vidalia facility in Louisiana (natural graphite processing).
- $754.8 million conditional commitment for Novonix’s Project Kathari (synthetic graphite processing).
The opportunity
Graphite processing is heavily concentrated in China. New Western processing capacity is urgently needed and strongly supported by government incentives.
The future is built on minerals
Our job is to help you not just participate, but lead: to turn complexity into clarity and uncertainty into advantage. The future is built on minerals, and we are here to help you build it.
Keep exploring
Investing in or supplying critical minerals?
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